Macroeconomic Forecast - July 2013

• Macroeconomic Forecast - July 2013 (.PDF, 978 kB)
• Summary of the Forecast - July 2013 (.PDF, 122 kB)
• Risks to the Forecast - July 2013 (.PDF, 83 kB)
• A - Forecast Assumptions - July 2013 (.PDF, 328 kB)
• B - Economic Cycle - July 2013 (.PDF, 243 kB)
• C - Forecast of the Development of Macroeconomic Indicators - July 2013 (.PDF, 198 kB)
• D - Monitoring of Other Institutions’ Forecasts - July 2013 (.PDF, 112 kB)
• E - Evaluation of the MoF’s forecast history - July 2013 (.PDF, 199 kB) 

Tables and Graphs

• Tables and Graphs - July 2013 (.PDF, 353 kB)
• C.1 Economic Output - July 2013 (.PDF, 164 kB)
• C.2 Prices - July 2013 (.PDF, 163 kB)
• C.3 Labour Market - July 2013 (.PDF, 153 kB)
• C.4 External Relations - July 2013 (.PDF, 152 kB)
• C.5 International Comparisons - July 2013 (.PDF, 130 kB) 

Macroeconomic Forecast in a Nutshell

• Macroeconomic Forecast in a Nutshell - July 2013 (.PDF, 758 kB)

Structure of the presentation

• Forecast Assumptions
  • risks of the forecast
  • external environment
  • fiscal policy
  • monetary policy, interest rates and exchange rates
  • structural reforms
• Economic Cycle
• Forecast of Macroeconomic Indicators
  • economic output
  • inflation
  • labour market
  • external relations

Source: MOF - Financial Policy Department, July 2013.

Preparation of the Macroeconomic Forecast

• Preparation of the Macroeconomic Forecast – a Look under the Hood - July 2013 (.PDF, 91 kB)

• Updated: 25.07.2013

Evaluation of Forecasting History at the Ministry of Finance

• Macroeconomic Forecasts at the MoF - A Look into the Rear view Mirror - July 2013 (.PDF, 184 kB)
• AnalytIQ – tools to assess the MoF forecasts’ accuracy and much more - July 2013 (.ZIP, 247 kB)

• To run, the application requires Microsoft Excel 2010 or Microsoft Excel 2007. Macros need to be enabled.
• Updated: 25.07.2013

Information

• The Macroeconomic Forecast is prepared by the Financial Policy Department of the Czech Ministry of Finance on a quarterly basis. It contains a forecast for the current and following years (i.e. until 2014) and for certain indicators an outlook for another 2 years (i.e. until 2016). As a rule, it is published in the second half of the first month of each quarter.
• Any comments or suggestions that would help us to improve the quality of our publication and closer satisfy the needs of its users are welcome. Please direct any comments to the following email address: 
                             macroeconomic.forecast(at)mfcr.cz
• Cut-off Date for Data Sources:
  The forecast was made on the basis of data known as of 1 July 2013. No political decisions, newly released statistics, or world financial or commodity market developments could have been taken into account after this date.